It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
